The Greatest Showman

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Warner Bros. has never been worried about the popularity of the discussion of "Interstellar". Even if the file is raised for half a year, even if the time is rushed, but relying on the strong appeal of the cast lineup, these are not problems.

Sure enough, after the premiere of the movie, from the media to the audience, from traditional newspapers and magazines to emerging social networks, "Interstellar" began to swipe the screen mightily, and the discussion was soaring into the sky, although it was temporarily impossible to communicate with "Captain America" 2" is comparable to the foreshadowing that has been brewing for more than eighteen months, but it still has a firm foothold in the summer vacation.

Now it’s time to look at the conversion rate between discussion popularity and box office data. Judging from the market appeal of Renly and Nolan, the final total box office figures are worth looking forward to.

However, as I mentioned before, because of the feedback from the internal preview and the decision to temporarily raise the file, including Warner Bros. and industry insiders, the box office estimates for the premiere are relatively conservative, refer to the "Inception" Judging from the box office curve, "Interstellar" should also rely more on the continuous long-term box office, rather than the outbreak of the opening weekend.

The cautiousness of Warner Bros. can be seen from the number of theaters for public screenings.

"Godzilla" has 3,952 theaters.

"Interstellar", the number of public screening theaters is 3,592.

There is a difference of 360 theaters between the two works, and the number of venues for "Interstellar" is even less than that of "The Lego Movie" and "300 Warriors" released earlier this year. In 2014 Among Warner Bros.'s annual theatrical works, "Interstellar" can only be ranked eighth in terms of public release scale, which is basically the same as the comedy film "Tan Mi".

The arrangement of the number of theaters for public screenings is undoubtedly distinctive: animation movies that are fun for the family often exceed 4,000; popcorn movies that are heavyweight in the summer are generally around 3,800; horror movies are of the order of magnitude It is less than 3,000 rooms, and less than 2,000 rooms are also common.

Now, there are only 3,592 "Interstellar", which is only less than 100 more than "Tan Mi". This is also one of the important reasons why the major news media generally suspected that the film might become an abandoned child after the movie was decided to be released. Even if it is not an abandoned child, it also shows that Warner Bros. lacks confidence.

Looking at the horizontal comparison, the "Edge of Tomorrow" two years ago was like this, and the number of screening venues was about 3,500; also as a reference, the number of theater venues in "Inception" was 3,790 two.

It can be seen that the number of venues in the above three works is lower than the average level of summer commercial works. From a purely data perspective, the difference is only 200 or 300. The part that may differ is in the central region. In some small towns, the impact on the box office is minimal - but, who knows? Who can be 100% sure?

The only thing that can be explained is that Warner Bros.'s market estimates for sci-fi movies are still slightly conservative. Even after "Edge of Tomorrow" and "Inception" have achieved excellent results, the publicity department has released box office data for "Interstellar". Estimates are somewhat conservative. This mentality is also concentrated in Warner Bros.' official box-office forecasts.

Sixty-five million dollars!

Not 100 million US dollars, not 80 million US dollars, but only a mere 65 million US dollars. Such an ultra-low figure also made all netizens and viewers fall through their glasses.

But in fact, industry insiders believe that this is a very appropriate number.

Although "Edge of Tomorrow" once created a miracle at the opening weekend of 138 million in the same schedule two years ago, it was born with the attitude of the twenty-second premiere box office of the film history breaking 100 million; But don't forget Inception.

Nolan called Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ellen Page, Marion Cotillard and other actors to form a team comparable to the "Avengers". Under the cover of 74 points in the media's comprehensive review, everyone believes that this film has all the elements to detonate the market, and it can be said that it has attracted much attention.

The final "Inception" opening box office was 62 million.

Of course, "Pirates of Dreams" still swept the box office data of 290 million US dollars in North America with its super reputation, and the performance of overseas markets was even more impressive; but the objective fact is that such brain-burning sci-fi movies are premiering The weekend really lacked explosive power, and more need to use the stamina after word-of-mouth communication to complete the breakthrough at the box office.

"Interstellar" can be compared with "Inception" in all aspects, so Warner Bros. gave a box office prediction of 65 million for the premiere, which is a little conservative but has no merit.

The box office forecast figures of the relevant professional media also expressed support for Warner Bros.

The Chicago Sun-Times' box-office forecast was the highest bidder in its first round of estimates: $80 million.

"The Nolan of the present is not the Nolan of 2010, and the Hall of the present is not the Hall of 2012. These two top filmmakers in the Hollywood pyramid have proven themselves through work after work, when When Nolan and Hall partnered in 2014, the spark they collided with was undoubtedly market-explosive."

They mentioned one very important thing: When Edge of Tomorrow hit theaters, while the likes of "Love Crazy" and "Fast \u0026 Furious 5" were already doing well at the box office, Renly was one of the first The "summer novice" who never took the lead, and switched from art film to commercial film, no one can be sure whether the audience will go for "Renly-Hall"

The name entered the movie theater; but now the situation has changed dramatically, as evidenced by the excellent box office of "Gravity" and "Drunken Country Ballad".

There's no reason, then, for "Interstellar" to be the exception.

Rolling Stone's box-office projections set the lowest first-round forecast ever: $25 million.

No errors in printing, no errors in magazine predictions, that's the right number, and apparently they didn't miss a zero.

"Everyone ignores the fact that when '2001: A Space Odyssey' and 'Blade Runner' premiered that year, they didn't get the treatment they deserved - 'Blade Runner' was even scolded for being a A super bad movie, and the box office performance of both works is very bad. This also proves that the classic sci-fi movies that exist beyond the times are often unable to meet the needs of contemporary aesthetics.

The success of 'Inception' comes from the fantasy construction based on the real life of human beings, and in the environment of 'Interstellar' leaving the earth and entering space, can the 'brain-burning plot' presented by Nolan still be accepted by the broad audience ? Moreover, it is even more difficult for this work to kill a bloody path in the summer season when 'Gravity' has just dedicated the best space scene in film history. "

From the vague feedback from the internal preview, to the temporary promotion for half a year, to the absence of Renly during the publicity stage... "Rolling Stone" believes that there is a sense of unease in every aspect - perhaps "Interstellar" can still be completed by word of mouth Turned over, but it is difficult to break the shackles of the entire current era on the opening weekend: This is an era when the fragrance of wine is also afraid of deep alleys. Even Marvel movies cannot guarantee the box office success of each work. , then how can Nolan and Renly's signboards say that they can "finalize the word"?

"Chicago Sun" and "Rolling Stone" point of view are reasonable, and other media's forecast data can also refer to:

The New York Times, 55 million.

Los Angeles Times, 40 million.

"The Hollywood Reporter," 60 million.

"Variety", 60 million.

"Empire", fifty million.

The forecast data of mainstream authoritative media are all concentrated in the range of 40 million to 60 million. Overall, it is still relatively average, neither too high nor too low, basically consistent with the official forecast of Warner Bros.; The curves of feedback and comprehensive reviews of the media are also somewhat similar - the main opinions are all concentrated in the middle area. way to comment on this work, but could not be determined in a short period of time.

Then, that's it.

In fact, people in the industry are looking forward to the emergence of a popular work more than anyone else - since the opening of the summer program in 2014, there has been no opening weekend box office for any work breaking the 100 million threshold, which is really disappointing. All the highly anticipated works unfortunately lack explosiveness, which makes the summer season a little dull.

So far, the best-performing work at the box office in the summer premiere weekend is still "Captain America 2", with 95 million, which is so close but so far from the threshold of 100 million.

In addition, there are three more works that have debuted at the box office of more than 90 million, closely behind "Captain America 2" - "Godzilla", "The Amazing Spider-Man 2", "X-Men: Reversing the Future", but the premiere figures of the three works are all between 90 million and 93 million, and they have not been able to make a breakthrough.

Now everyone is discussing: Will there be any works this year that can break the 100 million threshold at the opening weekend box office? If "Interstellar" lives up to its hopes, "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Transformers 4" also seem to lack a bit of a champion look, should they expect "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles"?

After the official debut of "Interstellar", the word-of-mouth feedback in all aspects was eye-catching, which also caused the major news media to slightly raise their expectations-perhaps, they underestimated this work; maybe, Nolan After all, the chemistry with Renly can trigger a market boom; perhaps, they can expect some unexpected surprises?

Like Warner Bros., industry insiders are also waiting for the emergence of a dark horse, otherwise such a lifeless summer season will really be no fun at all.

Can this be regarded as... expecting to be slapped in the face?

However, judging from the popcorn index, theater scores and other data, "Interstellar" is more likely to be like the second "Inception" than the second "Edge of Tomorrow".

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