Rebirth of the Strongest Tycoon

Soon, the dishes were ready, and under the greeting of Bao Yugang, Xia Yu brought Li Qian to the table.

During the banquet, Bao Yugang's family was very enthusiastic. Xia Yu had a hearty dinner with a smile on his face. He didn't talk about superfluous things in the middle, that is, he simply chatted about family affairs. Xia Yu knew that Bao Yugang planned to talk to him after the meal. Thing, he was happy too.

After the meal was full, the nanny removed the food, and a group of people came to the living room to drink tea.

Bao Peirong found a reason and called Li Qian to her room to chat. In a blink of an eye, only Xia Yu and Bao Yugang's son-in-law were left in the living room.

After Wu Guangzheng filled Xia Yu's teacup, Bao Yu just took a sip of tea and put down the teacup, and let out a long sigh. Xia Yu realized that it was time to get down to business, he leaned forward slightly and made a listening gesture.

Bao Yugang smiled and said, "Xia Sheng, I actually wanted to ask you for some advice this time, please don't hesitate to enlighten me!"

"Baosheng is very polite, please tell me, I will answer everything I know, and I will say everything!"

Xia Yu said with a smile on his face.

"Haha, Xia Sheng is so arrogant, then I'll have the cheek to ask."

Bao Yugang said with a hearty smile, then smiled slightly, and asked: "Xia Sheng, I read every issue of your "Jiuding Daily", the articles and news on it are of very high quality, and I can't find a better newspaper in Xiangjiang. ."

"thanks!"

Bao Yugang first flattered Xia Yu to make a foreshadowing, Xia Yu smiled and said thank you.

"The analysis of the Hong Kong transportation market written in the newspaper today is very incisive and detailed. After reading it, I have benefited a lot, but I have some doubts in my heart. You also know that the situation of the world shipping market in recent years is really bad. You How do you know that shipping will rise?"

Bao Yugang said slowly, and then looked at Xia Yu with a burning gaze.

In fact, this is a euphemism. In fact, after reading this article, Bao Yugang thought about it for a whole day, which conflicts with his point of view!

He judged that in the next few years, even more than ten years, the shipping market will be sluggish, and the global shipping market will enter a recession period, but the opinion of "Jiuding Daily" is exactly the opposite of his judgment.

Although Bao Yugang believed in his own judgment, judging from the quality of Jiuding Daily, the article could not be without a target, so Bao Yugang wanted to know the deep-seated reasons to see if he had overlooked something.

Not only Bao Yugang, Wu Guangzheng also pricked up his ears, wanting to know Xia Yu's views and opinions, after all, this is too important!

"Baosheng, I'll be the axe, talk about my humble opinion, please don't take offense if it's not good!"

Xia Yu said modestly.

"Xia Sheng doesn't have to be modest, please!"

Bao Yugang said with a smile, then made a gesture of please, and then made a gesture of listening.

"Actually, this article is not correct!"

Xia Yu pondered for a moment and said slowly, Bao Yugang and Wu Guangzheng frowned suddenly.

Without waiting for them to ask, Xia Yu continued: "Bao Sheng, you should be very clear that the shipping industry has cycles. Throughout the centuries, the prosperity and crisis cycle of the shipping industry has basically happened every 10 years, and it starts again and again. And follow a remarkably similar trajectory."

Bao Yugang nodded in agreement. He had a deep understanding of this. He had experienced it once before, and he will never forget it!

After "World War II" to the mid-to-late 1960s, the boom and bust cycles of the global shipping market were short, and the entire shipping market was in a stage of low and turbulent consolidation. Until 1967, when the Arab-Israeli war broke out, Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsula, and the Suez Canal became a frontier position. The canal was closed for 8 years. In the past, ships that bypassed the Suez Canal had to go far away from the Cape of Good Hope, which greatly stimulated the development of the Suez Canal. Shipping business.

In addition, in the late 1960s, world industrial trade was also in a period of prosperity. During this period, the volume of global maritime trade increased by leaps and bounds, from 1.81 billion tons in 1966 to 3.23 billion tons in 1973, an increase of 78%. The global demand for ships is greater than the total demand in the nearly 20 years after World War II.

Despite the rapid expansion of shipbuilding, shipping capacity is still in short supply, and "one ship is hard to find" in the market. In an instant, the shipping industry became the most promising and profitable industry at the time, and banks joined the shipping industry one after another. Therefore, the late 1960s was also known as the golden age for the development of the global shipping market, but the hidden dangers were also buried. From 1970 to 1971, a second-hand ship was about 26 million US dollars, but in 1972 it rose to 61 million-73.5 million US dollars. almost tripled.

But in the summer of 1973, when the fourth Middle East war broke out, the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to impose an oil embargo on Israel and related countries, and greatly increased the price of crude oil, causing the price of crude oil to more than triple, and finally triggering a global sexual economic crisis.

The decrease in demand for oil imports has dealt a heavy blow to oil transportation, one of the important components of shipping, and the freight rate collapsed instantly. In December, the freight rate plummeted to around 80S, a drop of nearly 75%. In addition, rising oil prices have exacerbated the global recession, affecting every corner of the shipping industry, including the dry bulk and container shipping markets, as well as the newbuilding and secondhand markets.

After that, the shipping market entered a long period of recession and sluggishness. Although there was a brief recovery and recovery, the trend of recession did not substantively ease. The freight is basically below the transportation cost, the oil tanker is idle as high as more than 10 million DT, and the volume and price of second-hand ship transactions have dropped. To $5 million, a drop of as much as 90% in less than 4 years.

It can be said that the past few years have been very difficult, and Bao Yugang has also relied on the advantage of size to reduce costs and survive and develop in this difficult environment.

This winter, Bao Yugang has a clear understanding of the situation in the world shipping market, and he is also pessimistic about the future of shipping. He already has plans to go ashore.

But in this case, the "Jiuding Daily" even clearly stated that the cold winter of the shipping market is over and spring is coming. How can this not make Bao Yugang's heart shake?

"Baosheng, there are too many idle ships on the market. Whether it is a new ship or a second-hand ship, they are all waiting for someone to take over. In this case, it is difficult to raise the freight rate."

"But Bao Sheng, you run around the world all year round, especially passing through the Middle East. I wonder how you feel about it?"

Xia Yu asked suddenly.

Bao Yugang's eyes narrowed, and he immediately understood the potential meaning of Xia Yu. Instead, he said, "You mean the Middle East is unstable?"

"You should know better than me about this Baosheng. Now is the US-Soviet hegemony. The Middle East is an important point of contention, and it is also a bottomless quagmire. There are a lot of restless masters, and Israel is a mess. The stick is stirring the wind and the rain; Iraq is also ambitious, and other countries such as Iran and Arabia are not the masters of keeping their own feet, each with their own minds, but this place is still the heart of the world's oil, with intertwined interests, and it is easy to misfire if you are not careful. "

"After the Second World War, has there been less war in the Middle East? If there is another war in the Middle East, the consequences can be imagined!"

Xia Yu said slowly.

"If this does happen, wouldn't the shipping market be even more miserable? How could it be on the rise?"

Wu Guangzheng looked at Xia Yu inexplicably and asked.

Xia Yu didn't say anything, but looked at Bao Yugang. Bao Yugang frowned and thought for a while, then said slowly: "No, it will look up. With a dozen in the Middle East, oil prices will rise, and the business of tankers will definitely be more difficult to do, but the world Factories in various places cannot stop, and if they can’t burn oil, they will burn more affordable coal, and the business of coal ships will be very good.”

"But transporting coal is more difficult than transporting oil, and the port will definitely be congested. With dry bulk shipping, it is very likely to rise!"

"It's just that this good situation will never last long, and it will only prosper for a few years at most!"

Bao Yugang shook his head and said affirmatively. There is one more thing he didn't say, that is, this can only be realized under the premise that it will happen. If the Middle East is not chaotic, even if it is prosperous for a few years, don't even think about it.

"That's right, that's why I said right or wrong. It will prosper, but it's part of the market other than tankers, and it won't prosper for many years."

"It's just that I don't need someone to write it down, Bao Sheng, you should understand why."

Xia Yu said calmly.

Bao Yugang nodded in understanding.

Xia Yu wanted to use public opinion to influence the stock price of Jardine Air Cargo Terminal Company. Naturally, he wanted to be as unfavorable as possible to air freight, so he could only tell good news about shipping, and it was impossible to tell bad news.

"Hey!"

After Wu Guangzheng figured it out, he couldn't help sighing. Bao Yugang glanced at him and didn't say anything about him, because Bao Yugang knew why his son-in-law sighed.

"Bao Sheng, take the liberty to ask, do you want to go ashore?"

Xia Yu hesitated for a while and asked.

As soon as Xia Yu said this, Bao Yugang pondered for a while, then nodded slowly and said, "Yes, I have this idea."